Never, ever ignore a decision-maker’s psychology

Yesterday afternoon I got lucky.

At 4:01 pm CDT yesterday, after watching Intrade’s gyrations as GOP VP predictive market investors had Romney and Pawlenty positions fighting it out for the lead, I commented on this blog that a decision-maker’s psychology is critical to their decisions:



"I am reflecting on how decisions reflect the decision-maker’s psychology. If you were McCain the Maverick, who would you choose? The market leader or an outsider / outlier surprise?”



This morning’s news that Senator McCain has chosen Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate in the upcoming Presidential election is a reminder to us all that we ignore a decision-maker’s psychology at our peril.


This reminder is especially important to law firm competitive intelligence professionals who support their firms’ business development efforts. CI professionals working in law firms should be able to develop psychological profiles of prospective clients, particularly those who make the final hiring decision.

And please don’t anybody freak out—developing psychological profiles is a common CI function. Heck, my mother and four sisters do this countless times each day. It’s also how Mrs. Marple solved all those mysteries.

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Never, ever ignore a decision-maker’s psychology

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More forecasting with predictive markets?

Earlier this week, I posted about the possible use of predictive markets to develop competitive intelligence, citing InTrade’s and InklingMarkets’ early warnings that Senator Biden would be the Democratic VP nominee. These tools were brought to my attention by Tom Davis at Cygnus Associates

Late last night watching the Democratic Convention, I heard CNN report that the presumptive Republican nominee, Senator John McCain, has settled on his pick for a VP running mate. So I trotted over to Intrade to look at the action on Republican VP front-runners. During the preceding 24 hours, Governor Romney’s stock had fallen $20, from $65 to $45, but had started to crawl up again. His price was almost twice that of the next-highest contender, Tim Pawlenty, who was at $24.20.

This morning at 7:30 a.m. I see that Romney’s stock continued climbing overnight and is now up $13.50 at $58.50. In other words, the market predicts there’s a 58.5% chance he will become the nominee. Since midnight, Pawlenty is down by $2.20 to $22.00.

I’m not sure if this is CI or just political obsession, but stay tuned.

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More forecasting with predictive markets?

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https://charlotte-lifesaboutthejourney.blogspot.com/2008/08/more-forecasting-with-predictive.html

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